War, diplomacy, and more war: why did the Minsk agreements fail?

Abstract

Despite significant Western involvement, most notably by the leaders of Germany, France, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the diplomatic efforts in 2014 and 2015 to forge a functioning and lasting ceasefire in Donbas ended up as a failure. The ceasefire agreements signed in September 2014 and February 2015, commonly known as ‘Minsk I’ and ‘Minsk II’, remained largely unimplemented throughout the following years, much to the frustration of the agreements’ Western backers. On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This article examines the underlying causes that ultimately led to the demise of the Minsk process. Drawing on theoretical insights from the negotiation studies literature, the article seeks to shed light on the diplomatic processes that preceded the signing of the agreements, as well as the practical difficulties that the parties were facing, and created for each other, in the implementation phase.