Bodø2024: Simulating bestcase and worst-case scenarios Monitor 2024: Effects of Bodø as European Capital of Culture 2024

Abstract

The Bodø2024 project marks a significant cultural milestone as Bodø becomes the European Capital of Culture (ECoC), the first city above the Arctic Circle to receive this title. Throughout 2024, Bodø and the surrounding Nordland region will host a plethora of cultural events and initiatives, embracing the unique geographical and cultural characteristics of the Arctic. The European Commission (EC) requires the organiser of the capital of culture (Bodø2024 IKS) to conduct an evaluation of the project. Bodø2024 has entered into an agreement with Nord University to assess the impacts of Bodø as EcoC. This evaluation was conducted by a group of researchers affiliated with the Nord University Business School as part of the Monitor2024 project. Evaluating the effects of Bodø2024 on the population’s urban and regional development is a challenging task, as the relationships between cultural investments and socioeconomic outputs are often indirect and difficult to quantify. Interactions between multiple aspects, from direct subsidies to local artists to increased life satisfaction, create a complex multidisciplinary picture that cannot be reduced to a simple chart connecting causes and consequences. To manage this complexity, the agent-based modelling (ABM) methodology was selected. This approach involves simulating the actions and interactions of autonomous agents (both individuals and collective entities such as organisations or groups) to understand the behaviour of a system and what governs its outcomes. ABM is broadly used in the natural sciences, but it is gradually being adopted in the socioeconomic field as well. Based on statistical data for 2022, a “digital twin” of Bodø municipality was created, including 52,802 individuals; 25,560 households; 32,019 apartments, houses, industrial buildings and other real estate properties; and 1,250 organisations with 24,779 employees. Based on certain rules of behaviour, the individuals, firms and other entities in the model can “live” (i.e. interact with each other and their simulated environment over time). The model is calibrated against historical data. This paper provides information on the reliability and validity of the model. The resulting model, which can replicate the historical development of Bodø municipality, is also expected to provide reasonable forecasts when the model runs forward, simulating development from 2022 to 2036. This paper describes in detail how cultural life and the Bodø2024 project are integrated into the overall socioeconomic model of Bodø municipality. Cultural life is incorporated into the simulation in several ways. First, all organisations present in a municipality, including culture-related organisations, are included in the basic model. Second, changes in cultural life are simulated through various cultural happenings (anything that is related to culture and may have any measurable effect on the simulation, for example, concerts). Third, cultural life is assumed to influence Bodø’s attractiveness as a tourist destination. Finally, cultural life is expected to influence the propensity to live or stay in Bodø, especially among young residents. Using this socioeconomic model with a culture-related extension, two scenarios are simulated for Bodø in 2022–2036: The “success” scenario (the best-case scenario, in which all Bodø2024 activities proceed as planned at maximum capacity), and the “fiasco” scenario (the worst-case scenario, in which Bodø2024 fails to attract significant public attention). The results of the simulation suggest that in the success scenario, 2,046 more individuals will be living in Bodø than under the fiasco scenario. It is projected that the Bodø2024 project will lead to direct spending, increased turnover in tourism-related industries, indirect and induced increase in sales, a larger available workforce, and consumption effects related to a growing population. These factors are anticipated to increase the operating income of organisations/firms operating in Bodø. Compared to the fiasco scenario, the success scenario will generate NOK 1.236 billion over the simulated 15-year period, an average of NOK 82 million per year. Among other consequences, migration, births, deaths, unemployment, and the number of children in kindergartens and pupils in schools are discussed. This pioneering attempt to simulate a municipality with a focus on cultural life is based on the data available to the research team at the end of 2023. As the Bodø2024 project culminates in 2024, more precise assumptions for alternative scenarios will be developed, increasing the accuracy of the model.