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Predicting fish community responses to environmental policy targets

Deflem, Io S.; Bennetsen, Elina; Opedal, Øystein H.; Calboli, Federico C.F.; Ovaskainen, Otso; Van Thuyne, Gerlinde; Volckaert, Filip A.M.; Raeymaekers, Joost A.M.
Peer reviewed, Journal article
Accepted version
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URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2982787
Date
2021
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  • Artikler, rapporter og annet (FBA) [958]
  • Publikasjoner fra Cristin - Nord universitet [4086]
Original version
Deflem, I. S., Bennetsen, E., Opedal, Ø. H., Calboli, F.C.F., Ovaskainen, O., Van Thuyne, G., Volckaert, F.A.M. & Raeymaekers, J.A.M. (2021). Predicting fish community responses to environmental policy targets. Biodiversity and Conservation, 30(5), 1457-1478. doi:   10.1007/s10531-021-02154-2
Abstract
The European Union adopted the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in the year 2000 to tackle the rapid degradation of freshwater systems. However, biological, hydromorphological, and physico-chemical water quality targets are currently not met, and identifying successful policy implementation and management actions is of key importance. We built a joint species distribution model for riverine fish in Flanders (Belgium) to better understand the response of fish communities to current environmental policy goals. Environmental covariates included physico-chemical variables and hydromorphological quality indices, while waterway distances accounted for spatial effects. We detected strong effects of physico-chemistry on fish species’ distributions. Evaluation of fish community responses to simulated policy scenarios revealed that targeting a ‘good’ status, following the WFD, increases average species richness with a fraction of species (0.13–0.69 change in accumulated occurrence probabilities). Targeting a ‘very good’ status, however, predicted an increase of 0.17–1.38 in average species richness. These simulations indicated that riverbed quality, nitrogen, and conductivity levels should be the focal point of policy. However, the weak response of species to a ‘good’ quality together with the complexity of nutrient-associated problems, suggest a challenging future for river restoration in Flanders.
Description
 
Author's accepted version (postprint).
 
This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Springer in Biodiversity and Conversation on 27/03/2021.
 
Available online: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10531-021-02154-2
 
Publisher
Springer
Journal
Biodiversity and Conservation

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